In April, the overall trend of China's textile and apparel exports was good, and the exports in the second quarter and the second half of the year were cautiously optimistic. As the first month of the second quarter, the export of textiles and garments in April all increased compared with the same period last year, compared with the same period in 2019, and month-on-month, and the export of traditional bulk commodities showed an increase.
Just looking at the data, due to the peak of exports from May to September last year, the monthly export volume reached or approached 30 billion US dollars. It is tentatively predicted that in the second quarter and the second half of this year, due to the high base last year and the rapid decline in the export of epidemic prevention materials this year, in the second quarter and the second half of this year, In the case of statistics including anti-epidemic materials, exports must fall year-on-year. Excluding epidemic prevention materials, there is still room for growth in exports.
According to the situation of enterprises receiving orders, the recent concentrated survey of key exporting provinces and cities by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles shows that enterprises generally reflect that the current orders are relatively sufficient, but due to multiple factors such as rising raw material, logistics and labor costs, exchange rate fluctuations and other factors, production costs have increased significantly. Rising, profit margins are further squeezed. In addition, the current international business environment is volatile and uncertain events occur frequently, and export enterprises are generally cautious about the export situation in the second half of the year.
The skyrocketing ocean freight rate is the biggest challenge facing exporters at present. The skyrocketing sea freight rate has become a problem faced by all foreign trade enterprises, and it is the biggest difficulty and blocking point in the export process of enterprises. The epidemic and the blockage of the Suez Canal caused the cancellation or postponement of the sailing schedule. In addition, the loss of seafarers caused a backlog of goods in the port, and it was difficult to find a container. In addition, domestic scalpers are rampant, further driving up freight rates. At present, a container container has risen to more than 10,000 US dollars, an average increase of 3 to 4 times compared with normal years. The skyrocketing freight costs have severely squeezed corporate profits. If you want to share this part of the cost with customers, it will lead to a decline in the profits of customers and affect the enthusiasm of customers to purchase.
The RMB has reached a new high against the US dollar, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations exists objectively. On May 27, the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose above 6.38, and the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar once exceeded 6.37, both hitting new highs since May 2018. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the risk of RMB exchange rate fluctuations exists objectively, and enterprises need to adapt to changes in the foreign exchange market environment. In general, the medium- and long-term appreciation trend of RMB against the US dollar is basically certain, and fluctuations during this period will become the norm. Foreign trade enterprises must pay close attention to exchange rate changes, adjust strategies in a timely manner, and reduce exchange rate risks.
The popularization of vaccination in developed countries may form support for export growth. As of May 24, according to the statistics of Oxford University's Our World in Data, more than 1.7 billion doses of the new coronavirus vaccine have been reported globally, with a vaccination rate of 9.96%. The vaccination rate in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Germany and other countries has reached or exceeded 40%. With the popularization of vaccination, the economic activities of my country's key textile and apparel markets have gradually recovered, and consumer shopping needs and store entry rates have rebounded, which will form a strong support for exports. It is expected that after the vaccination rate of developed countries reaches the critical value of herd immunity, the layout of global trade, industrial chain and supply chain will gradually return to the original track.
From January to April 2021, my country's textile and apparel trade volume was US$99.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%. Among them, exports were US$90.29 billion, an increase of 32.9%, an increase of 19.3% over the same period in 2019; imports were US$9.26 billion, an increase of 18.2%, an increase of 16.6% over the same period in 2019, and the cumulative trade surplus was US$81.04 billion, an increase of 34.8% over the same period in 2019. An increase of 19.6%. In April, the trade volume of textiles and apparel was 26.17 billion US dollars, an increase of 12% year-on-year, an increase of 21.4% over the same period in 2019, and an increase of 18.5% month-on-month. Among them, exports were US$23.77 billion, an increase of 9.8%, an increase of 22.3% over the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month increase of 22.8%; imports were US$2.4 billion, an increase of 40.3%, an increase of 13.2% over the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month decrease of 12.1%. The trade surplus in the month was 21.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.2%, an increase of 23.5% over the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month increase of 28.6%.
Textile and apparel exports grow rapidly
In April, the export of textiles and clothing maintained a good growth trend. The export of textiles in the month decreased by 16.4% year-on-year, but it was mainly affected by the decline in the export of epidemic prevention materials. Due to the factors of epidemic prevention materials (mainly medical masks), textiles in the month increased by 80.6% year-on-year and 21.1% compared with the same period in 2019. Clothing exports increased by 64.9% year-on-year and 19.2% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, knitted and woven clothing of bulk commodities grew rapidly. Excluding the factors of epidemic prevention materials (mainly protective clothing), clothing exports in the month increased by 83.7% year-on-year, compared with the same period in 2019. Compared with the increase of 17.5%.